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CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

2-17  |  Road

60
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 7:00 PM ET
DeGol Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

5-14  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
📊
RED FLASH
100%
COUGARS --
RED FLASH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
CHICAGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Chicago State)
CougarsCHST (-3.5) 0 Red FlashSFPA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

72.6%

Red Flash Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHST -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHST)

CHST By 1-7 points

26.8%

CHST By 8-14 points

24.3%

SFPA By 1-7 points

16.9%

SFPA By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
70
CHICAGO STATE
64
SAINT FRANCIS
Simulated Score
68
CHICAGO STATE
72
SAINT FRANCIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Flash Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cougars (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Red Flash (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 9, 2026 SFPA @ CHST 75 - 80
Jan 23, 2026 CHST @ SFPA 60 - 81
Mar 1, 2025 CHST @ SFPA 71 - 80
Feb 8, 2025 SFPA @ CHST 81 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.5% more
Chicago State: 10.4 vs Saint Francis: 9.1
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Chicago State: 72.8% vs Saint Francis: 66.6%
Blocks (L5) +53.4% more
Saint Francis: 2.0 vs Chicago State: 1.3
Rebounding (L5) +16.8% more
Saint Francis: 30.9 vs Chicago State: 26.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHST Score 70.0 60
SFPA Score 64.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 34.0 44.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.4 / 12.8 23.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.0 / 1.3 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 41.6 55.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 72.8 88.0 / 45.0
Rebounding 30.9 / 26.4 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.4 / 8.7 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 10.4 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
SFPA Advantage
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST Advantage
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFPA
CHST
SFPA
CHST
ML
68% 21-10
75% 24-8
67% 20-10
73% 22-8
ATS
68% 21-10
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
73% 22-8
TTL
58% 18-13
44% 14-18
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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