VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
24-13-12 | Road
6
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
24-17-9 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill | None-None | 3.00 | 0.857 | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 5.14 | 0.833 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
5.14
0.857 Ldr
Save %
0.833
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
VGK By 1 goal
19.7%
VGK By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
VGK @ TOR
6 - 3
Jan 15, 2026
TOR @ VGK
5 - 6
Mar 5, 2025
TOR @ VGK
2 - 5
Nov 20, 2024
VGK @ TOR
0 - 3
Feb 27, 2024
VGK @ TOR
6 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+13.5% more
Vegas: 24.1
vs
Toronto: 20.9
Power Play % (L5)
+7.6%
Vegas: 25.5%
vs
Toronto: 17.9%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+11.0% more
Toronto: 15.5
vs
Vegas: 13.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.2%
Toronto: 54.7%
vs
Vegas: 47.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
3.0
6
TOR Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.5 / 13.9
8.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
54.7 / 47.4
58.0 / 42.0
Hits
20.9 / 24.1
21.0 / 11.0
Power Play %
1786.0 / 2548.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.1 / 30.6
21.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 4.5
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
VGK
TOR
VGK
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
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