MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
11-7 | Road
58
JACKSONVILLE STATE
GAMECOCKSJXST
9-9 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
GAMECOCKS
0%
BLUE RAIDERS
--
GAMECOCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Jacksonville State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JXST -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)
MTSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
MTSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
JXST By 1-7 points
0.8%
JXST By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Middle Tennessee
59
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Jacksonville State
90
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
Middle Tennessee
71
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Jacksonville State
74
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gamecocks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gamecocks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gamecocks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Gamecocks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o134.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
MTSU @ JXST
58 - 75
Mar 14, 2025
MTSU @ JXST
68 - 70
Feb 6, 2025
MTSU @ JXST
63 - 77
Jan 11, 2025
JXST @ MTSU
64 - 81
Feb 21, 2024
MTSU @ JXST
68 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.7% more
Jacksonville State: 7.1
vs
Middle Tennessee: 5.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
Jacksonville State: 71.3%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 67.9%
Blocks (L5)
+51.9% more
Middle Tennessee: 5.9
vs
Jacksonville State: 2.8
Assists (L5)
+24.5% more
Middle Tennessee: 14.6
vs
Jacksonville State: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score
59.0
58
JXST Score
90.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 38.7
60.0 / 35.0
Assists
11.0 / 14.6
11.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.8 / 5.9
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 45.7
49.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
71.3 / 67.9
84.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
30.1 / 37.0
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.1 / 5.5
1.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 13.6
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
JXST
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
JXST
Advantage
13-15-1
(46.4%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
JXST
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
MTSU
JXST
MTSU
ML
50%
16-16
56%
18-14
55%
17-14
69%
22-10
ATS
62%
20-12
75%
24-8
55%
17-14
69%
22-10
TTL
62%
20-12
53%
17-15
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
