Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Buccaneers CIT @ ETSU

THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

6-14  |  Road

55
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

14-6  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
BULLDOGS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (East Tennessee State)
BulldogsCIT (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

1.4%

Buccaneers Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

CIT By 1-7 points

1.1%

CIT By 8-14 points

0.1%

ETSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

ETSU By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
59
THE CITADEL
81
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
68
THE CITADEL
75
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (-17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 CIT @ ETSU 76 - 83
Jan 23, 2026 CIT @ ETSU 55 - 84
Dec 30, 2025 ETSU @ CIT 74 - 49
Mar 1, 2025 ETSU @ CIT 81 - 66
Jan 11, 2025 CIT @ ETSU 52 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +77.8% more
East Tennessee State: 8.9 vs The Citadel: 5.0
Blocks (L5) +59.2% more
East Tennessee State: 3.1 vs The Citadel: 2.0
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
East Tennessee State: 47.7% vs The Citadel: 42.5%
Turnovers (L5) +30.9% more
The Citadel: 12.1 vs East Tennessee State: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 59.0 55
ETSU Score 81.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 32.0 36.0 / 41.0
Assists 11.9 / 13.1 20.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.0 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 42.5 56.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 79.3 / 78.8 71.0 / 40.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 36.7 42.0 / 24.0
Steals 8.9 / 5.0 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 12.1 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
CIT
ETSU
CIT
ML
42% 14-19
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
ATS
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
64% 21-12
TTL
45% 15-18
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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