Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Jazz SA @ UTAH

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

30-14  |  Road

126
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

15-29  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
📊
JAZZ
0%
SPURS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Utah)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

27.4%

Jazz Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

SA By 1-7 points

16.9%

SA By 8-14 points

6.8%

UTAH By 1-7 points

26.8%

UTAH By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
118
SAN ANTONIO
124
UTAH
Simulated Score
114
SAN ANTONIO
118
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jazz (+12) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Jazz (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o238.0 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u238.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 SA @ UTAH 126 - 109
Jan 19, 2026 UTAH @ SA 110 - 123
Dec 27, 2025 UTAH @ SA 127 - 114
Oct 10, 2025 UTAH @ SA 130 - 134
Nov 26, 2024 SA @ UTAH 128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.4% more
Utah: 15.6 vs San Antonio: 11.8
Steals (L5) +14.7% more
Utah: 8.1 vs San Antonio: 7.1
Assists (L5) +12.4% more
Utah: 30.8 vs San Antonio: 27.4
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Utah: 49.8% vs San Antonio: 46.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 118.0 126
UTAH Score 124.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 34.7 40.0 / 42.0
Assists 30.8 / 27.4 31.0 / 30.0
Blocks 3.0 / 5.9 3.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 46.0 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 83.1 85.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 42.4 / 44.1 44.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.1 / 7.1 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 11.8 17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
SA
UTAH
SA
ML
60% 96-63
60% 111-73
48% 40-43
58% 61-44
ATS
68% 108-51
58% 107-76-1
48% 40-43
58% 61-44
TTL
75% 119-39-1
74% 134-47-3
100% 83-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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