Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Dolphins BELL @ JAX

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

6-12  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Swisher Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

DOLPHINSJAX

7-12  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
📊
DOLPHINS
100%
KNIGHTS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-43.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +43.0 points (Bellarmine)
KnightsBELL (-3.5) 0 DolphinsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

100.0%

Dolphins Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BELL -43.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)

BELL By 1-7 points

0.0%

BELL By 8-14 points

0.2%

JAX By 1-7 points

0.0%

JAX By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
89
BELLARMINE
46
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
68
BELLARMINE
75
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 JAX @ BELL 79 - 82
Jan 22, 2026 BELL @ JAX 77 - 70
Feb 8, 2025 BELL @ JAX 64 - 73
Jan 9, 2025 JAX @ BELL 74 - 59
Jan 27, 2024 JAX @ BELL 63 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +109.8% more
Jacksonville: 3.0 vs Bellarmine: 1.4
Steals (L5) +32.0% more
Jacksonville: 8.1 vs Bellarmine: 6.2
Rebounding (L5) +19.8% more
Jacksonville: 33.6 vs Bellarmine: 28.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.5%
Jacksonville: 41.5% vs Bellarmine: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BELL Score 89.0 77
JAX Score 46.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.5 / 30.0 33.0 / 53.0
Assists 13.0 / 13.5 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.0 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 44.9 46.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 72.5 100.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 28.1 23.0 / 25.0
Steals 8.1 / 6.2 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 9.0 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BELL Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
JAX
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
JAX
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
BELL
JAX
BELL
ML
74% 23-8
72% 23-9
60% 18-12
94% 29-2
ATS
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
61% 19-12
94% 29-2
TTL
65% 20-11
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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