Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Leathernecks @ Eagles WIU @ MORE

WESTERN ILLINOIS

LEATHERNECKSWIU

4-15  |  Road

66
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:30 PM ET
Ellis T. Johnson Arena
View Odds Details →

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

9-10  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
LEATHERNECKS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
LEATHERNECKS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Western Illinois)
LeathernecksWIU (-3.5) 0 EaglesMORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Leathernecks Cover

100.0%

Eagles Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WIU -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)

WIU By 1-7 points

0.0%

WIU By 8-14 points

0.1%

MORE By 1-7 points

0.0%

MORE By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
105
WESTERN ILLINOIS
60
MOREHEAD STATE
Simulated Score
68
WESTERN ILLINOIS
75
MOREHEAD STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Leathernecks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Leathernecks (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 MORE @ WIU 81 - 59
Jan 22, 2026 WIU @ MORE 66 - 71
Feb 15, 2025 MORE @ WIU 67 - 72
Jan 16, 2025 WIU @ MORE 47 - 51
Feb 22, 2024 MORE @ WIU 78 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.7% more
Western Illinois: 6.2 vs Morehead State: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +15.7% more
Western Illinois: 11.7 vs Morehead State: 9.8
Assists (L5) +97.6% more
Morehead State: 15.4 vs Western Illinois: 7.8
Blocks (L5) +22.7% more
Morehead State: 2.5 vs Western Illinois: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIU Score 105.0 66
MORE Score 60.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 23.7 19.0 / 42.0
Assists 15.4 / 7.8 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 39.1 44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 76.4 / 69.4 50.0 / 46.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 37.5 50.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.8 / 6.2 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 11.7 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
5-26-0 (16.1%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
11-17-0 (39.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -0.1
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORE
WIU
MORE
WIU
ML
62% 20-12
45% 14-17
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
ATS
59% 19-13
52% 16-15
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
TTL
53% 17-15
45% 14-17
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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