TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
11-9 | Road
70
COASTAL CAROLINA
CHANTICLEERSCCU
11-9 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
CHANTICLEERS
100%
BOBCATS
--
CHANTICLEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TXST -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
TXST By 1-7 points
9.3%
TXST By 8-14 points
20.1%
CCU By 1-7 points
2.2%
CCU By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas State
93
TEXAS STATE
Coastal Carolina
74
COASTAL CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Texas State
70
TEXAS STATE
Coastal Carolina
72
COASTAL CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Chanticleers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Chanticleers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
TXST @ CCU
70 - 72
Jan 4, 2024
CCU @ TXST
71 - 63
Feb 18, 2023
TXST @ CCU
78 - 75
Feb 5, 2022
CCU @ TXST
64 - 69
Feb 6, 2020
TXST @ CCU
100 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+58.0% more
Texas State: 8.6
vs
Coastal Carolina: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+23.3% more
Texas State: 10.7
vs
Coastal Carolina: 8.2
Turnovers (L5)
+22.8% more
Texas State: 15.2
vs
Coastal Carolina: 11.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Texas State: 48.0%
vs
Coastal Carolina: 44.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXST Score
93.0
70
CCU Score
74.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 36.3
23.0 / 8.0
Assists
8.2 / 10.7
4.0 / 5.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.9
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 48.0
42.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 73.1
76.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 34.3
37.0 / 39.0
Steals
3.6 / 8.6
1.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 15.2
9.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
CCU
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
CCU
Advantage
18-12-1
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
CCU
17-13-1
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCU
TXST
CCU
TXST
ML
41%
13-19
42%
13-18
55%
17-14
83%
25-5
ATS
38%
12-20
48%
15-16
55%
17-14
84%
26-5
TTL
75%
24-8
65%
20-11
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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