Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bison @ Pioneers NDSU @ DEN

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

16-5  |  Road

82
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Hamilton Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

9-11  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
100%
📊
PIONEERS
0%
BISON --
PIONEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-51.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +51.0 points (Denver)
BisonNDSU (-3.5) 0 PioneersDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bison Cover

0.0%

Pioneers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -51.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

NDSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NDSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

DEN By 1-7 points

0.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
54
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
105
DENVER
Simulated Score
72
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
76
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pioneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pioneers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pioneers (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Sim Pioneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 DEN @ NDSU 78 - 71
Jan 22, 2026 NDSU @ DEN 82 - 77
Feb 15, 2025 DEN @ NDSU 84 - 89
Jan 11, 2025 NDSU @ DEN 69 - 50
Feb 17, 2024 NDSU @ DEN 71 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Denver: 81.6% vs North Dakota State: 74.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Denver: 48.7% vs North Dakota State: 45.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Denver: 38.7% vs North Dakota State: 36.1%
Steals (L5) +50.5% more
North Dakota State: 8.8 vs Denver: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score 54.0 82
DEN Score 105.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 36.1 43.0 / 42.0
Assists 10.8 / 14.5 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.7 / 2.8 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 45.7 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 74.3 75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 34.7 29.0 / 36.0
Steals 4.4 / 8.8 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 11.1 8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
NDSU
DEN
NDSU
ML
56% 18-14
49% 17-18
59% 19-13
59% 20-14
ATS
66% 21-11
54% 19-16
59% 19-13
59% 20-14
TTL
59% 19-13
43% 15-20
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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