Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Mountaineers UL @ APP

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

5-15  |  Road

58
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 12:00 PM ET
Holmes Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

11-9  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (App State)
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 MountaineersAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

0.3%

Mountaineers Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APP -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

UL By 1-7 points

0.3%

UL By 8-14 points

0.0%

APP By 1-7 points

2.2%

APP By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
59
LOUISIANA
86
APP STATE
Simulated Score
71
LOUISIANA
75
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o122.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u122.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 UL @ APP 58 - 72
Dec 18, 2024 APP @ UL 62 - 68
Feb 17, 2024 UL @ APP 73 - 85
Dec 30, 2021 UL @ APP 71 - 55
Jan 6, 2020 UL @ APP 81 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +38.1% more
App State: 37.0 vs Louisiana: 26.8
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
App State: 45.1% vs Louisiana: 40.1%
Steals (L5) +35.3% more
Louisiana: 5.8 vs App State: 3.8
Blocks (L5) +30.6% more
Louisiana: 5.5 vs App State: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 59.0 58
APP Score 86.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 36.2 45.0 / 24.0
Assists 11.5 / 11.5 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.8 / 5.5 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 40.1 52.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 62.9 / 62.4 60.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 26.8 39.0 / 24.0
Steals 3.8 / 5.8 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 7.6 / 9.4 13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
UL
APP
UL
ML
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
ATS
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
TTL
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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