LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
8-11 | Road
61
CAL STATE FULLERTON
TITANSCSUF
8-12 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
100%
TITANS
0%
BEACH
--
TITANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Cal State Fullerton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUF -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUF)
LBSU By 1-7 points
20.1%
LBSU By 8-14 points
9.3%
CSUF By 1-7 points
27.4%
CSUF By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Long Beach State
81
LONG BEACH STATE
Cal State Fullerton
85
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Simulated Score
Long Beach State
68
LONG BEACH STATE
Cal State Fullerton
72
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Titans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Titans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Titans (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Titans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
CSUF @ LBSU
86 - 82
Jan 22, 2026
LBSU @ CSUF
61 - 71
Jan 18, 2025
CSUF @ LBSU
83 - 67
Dec 5, 2024
LBSU @ CSUF
73 - 56
Feb 29, 2024
CSUF @ LBSU
76 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.7% more
Cal State Fullerton: 9.7
vs
Long Beach State: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+45.8% more
Long Beach State: 5.5
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.8%
Long Beach State: 76.1%
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 67.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
Long Beach State: 38.9%
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score
81.0
61
CSUF Score
85.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 38.9
21.0 / 31.0
Assists
13.9 / 14.8
19.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.0 / 5.5
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 49.8
53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
67.3 / 76.1
79.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 33.6
31.0 / 30.0
Steals
9.7 / 7.2
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 12.1
13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUF
Advantage
18-16-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUF
Advantage
19-11-2
(63.3%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUF
LBSU
CSUF
LBSU
ML
68%
23-11
55%
17-14
76%
26-8
65%
20-11
ATS
68%
23-11
68%
21-10
76%
26-8
65%
20-11
TTL
59%
20-14
61%
19-12
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
