UTAH VALLEY
WOLVERINESUVU
15-4 | Road
70
SOUTHERN UTAH
THUNDERBIRDSSUU
6-13 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
100%
THUNDERBIRDS
0%
WOLVERINES
--
THUNDERBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
SOUTHERN UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Southern Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SUU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SUU)
UVU By 1-7 points
4.0%
UVU By 8-14 points
0.8%
SUU By 1-7 points
13.7%
SUU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah Valley
52
UTAH VALLEY
Southern Utah
68
SOUTHERN UTAH
Simulated Score
Utah Valley
72
UTAH VALLEY
Southern Utah
75
SOUTHERN UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunderbirds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunderbirds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunderbirds (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Thunderbirds (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
UVU @ SUU
92 - 88
Jan 21, 2026
UVU @ SUU
70 - 84
Jan 8, 2026
SUU @ UVU
72 - 89
Mar 1, 2025
SUU @ UVU
59 - 100
Feb 15, 2025
UVU @ SUU
70 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+12.6% more
Southern Utah: 4.9
vs
Utah Valley: 4.4
Turnovers (L5)
+11.6% more
Southern Utah: 15.5
vs
Utah Valley: 13.9
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Southern Utah: 39.3
vs
Utah Valley: 35.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Southern Utah: 36.4%
vs
Utah Valley: 34.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVU Score
52.0
70
SUU Score
68.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 34.8
52.0 / 23.0
Assists
14.5 / 19.4
17.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.4
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 52.6
51.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 70.6
84.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 35.6
42.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.8 / 9.0
3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 13.9
17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
SUU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
SUU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.8
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SUU
UVU
SUU
UVU
ML
61%
19-12
56%
18-14
68%
21-10
72%
23-9
ATS
71%
22-9
53%
17-15
69%
22-10
74%
25-9
TTL
52%
16-15
44%
14-18
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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