EAST CAROLINA
PIRATESECU
5-13 | Road
60
WICHITA STATE
SHOCKERSWICH
11-8 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
SHOCKERS
0%
PIRATES
--
SHOCKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
WICHITA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Wichita State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WICH -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WICH)
ECU By 1-7 points
10.7%
ECU By 8-14 points
3.3%
WICH By 1-7 points
23.0%
WICH By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
East Carolina
61
EAST CAROLINA
Wichita State
71
WICHITA STATE
Simulated Score
East Carolina
68
EAST CAROLINA
Wichita State
77
WICHITA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Shockers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Shockers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Shockers (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Shockers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
WICH @ ECU
92 - 89
Jan 21, 2026
ECU @ WICH
60 - 77
Jan 18, 2025
ECU @ WICH
75 - 72
Feb 15, 2024
WICH @ ECU
55 - 68
Jan 24, 2024
ECU @ WICH
54 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+25.2% more
Wichita State: 42.5
vs
East Carolina: 33.9
Turnovers (L5)
+14.8% more
Wichita State: 11.7
vs
East Carolina: 10.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
Wichita State: 40.4%
vs
East Carolina: 32.2%
Assists (L5)
+18.0% more
East Carolina: 12.3
vs
Wichita State: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ECU Score
61.0
60
WICH Score
71.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.4 / 32.2
26.0 / 21.0
Assists
10.1 / 12.3
14.0 / 8.0
Blocks
5.9 / 5.7
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 42.6
42.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 64.4
74.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
42.5 / 33.9
49.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.1
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 10.2
8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
WICH
Advantage
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
WICH
Advantage
22-13-0
(62.9%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.9
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WICH
ECU
WICH
ECU
ML
61%
22-14
55%
17-14
68%
23-11
55%
17-14
ATS
64%
23-13
52%
16-15
68%
23-11
55%
17-14
TTL
69%
25-11
61%
19-12
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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