Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Royals UNA @ QUC

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

6-11  |  Road

62
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Curry Arena
View Odds Details →

QUEENS UNIVERSITY

ROYALSQUC

11-8  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
LIONS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Queens University)
LionsUNA (-3.5) 0 RoyalsQUC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

18.4%

Royals Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around QUC -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (QUC)

UNA By 1-7 points

12.2%

UNA By 8-14 points

4.0%

QUC By 1-7 points

24.3%

QUC By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
57
NORTH ALABAMA
66
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
73
NORTH ALABAMA
81
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 QUC @ UNA 85 - 78
Jan 21, 2026 UNA @ QUC 62 - 87
Feb 26, 2025 QUC @ UNA 69 - 74
Jan 29, 2025 UNA @ QUC 67 - 75
Jan 27, 2024 QUC @ UNA 84 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +63.9% more
Queens University: 17.4 vs North Alabama: 10.6
Rebounding (L5) +27.4% more
Queens University: 36.7 vs North Alabama: 28.8
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
Queens University: 74.8% vs North Alabama: 70.5%
Steals (L5) +20.5% more
North Alabama: 6.4 vs Queens University: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNA Score 57.0 62
QUC Score 66.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.2 / 31.7 20.0 / 25.0
Assists 17.4 / 10.6 11.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.1 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 47.6 54.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 70.5 96.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 28.8 35.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.1 / 6.4 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 9.6 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
QUC Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
QUC Advantage
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
QUC
22-12-0
O: 64.7% / U: 35.3% Total +/-: +5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
QUC
UNA
QUC
UNA
ML
71% 25-10
43% 13-17
71% 24-10
57% 16-12
ATS
86% 30-5
60% 18-12
71% 24-10
57% 16-12
TTL
47% 16-18-1
63% 19-11
100% 34-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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