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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

36-8  |  Road

122
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 9:30 PM ET
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View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

18-24  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
BUCKS
0%
THUNDER --
BUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Milwaukee)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 BucksMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

4.5%

Bucks Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

OKC By 1-7 points

3.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

0.6%

MIL By 1-7 points

12.2%

MIL By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
99
OKLAHOMA CITY
116
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
123
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bucks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bucks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bucks (+12) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Bucks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u223.5 Loss
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 MIL @ OKC 110 - 93
Jan 21, 2026 OKC @ MIL 122 - 102
Oct 14, 2025 OKC @ MIL 116 - 112
Mar 16, 2025 OKC @ MIL 121 - 105
Feb 3, 2025 MIL @ OKC 96 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +11.7% more
Milwaukee: 14.1 vs Oklahoma City: 12.6
Blocks (L5) +40.2% more
Oklahoma City: 7.5 vs Milwaukee: 4.5
Steals (L5) +11.1% more
Oklahoma City: 8.5 vs Milwaukee: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.1%
Oklahoma City: 76.8% vs Milwaukee: 70.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 99.0 122
MIL Score 116.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 41.2 39.0 / 39.0
Assists 25.5 / 26.7 30.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.5 / 7.5 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 52.2 49.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 76.8 67.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 41.3 / 42.0 39.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.5 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 12.6 16.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
OKC
MIL
OKC
ML
64% 61-35
70% 80-34
60% 49-32
48% 46-49
ATS
68% 65-31
73% 83-30-1
60% 49-32
48% 46-49
TTL
55% 53-43
67% 76-38
100% 81-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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