Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Golden Hurricane MEM @ TLSA

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

9-8  |  Road

66
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Reynolds Center
View Odds Details →

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

15-3  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
TIGERS --
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Tulsa)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 Golden HurricaneTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

1.4%

Golden Hurricane Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TLSA -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

MEM By 1-7 points

1.1%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.1%

TLSA By 1-7 points

5.8%

TLSA By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
61
MEMPHIS
83
TULSA
Simulated Score
70
MEMPHIS
78
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Hurricane Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Golden Hurricane (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 MEM @ TLSA 66 - 83
Feb 5, 2025 TLSA @ MEM 71 - 83
Jan 4, 2024 MEM @ TLSA 78 - 75
Jan 29, 2023 MEM @ TLSA 80 - 68
Jan 23, 2022 MEM @ TLSA 83 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +19.5%
Tulsa: 83.9% vs Memphis: 64.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Tulsa: 52.6% vs Memphis: 46.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Tulsa: 42.5% vs Memphis: 37.8%
Steals (L5) +59.4% more
Memphis: 10.9 vs Tulsa: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 61.0 66
TLSA Score 83.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.5 / 37.8 33.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.4 / 16.9 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 5.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.6 / 46.3 40.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 83.9 / 64.4 86.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 36.2 40.0 / 36.0
Steals 4.4 / 10.9 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 13.5 8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
MEM
TLSA
MEM
ML
66% 25-13
62% 20-12
64% 23-13
68% 21-10
ATS
74% 28-10
62% 20-12
64% 23-13
68% 21-10
TTL
58% 22-16
66% 21-11
100% 36-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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