MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
8-10 | Road
70
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
15-3 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
TERRAPINS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-46.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +46.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -46.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
MD By 1-7 points
0.0%
MD By 8-14 points
0.0%
ILL By 1-7 points
0.0%
ILL By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
43
MARYLAND
Illinois
89
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Maryland
70
MARYLAND
Illinois
75
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (-18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -46.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
ILL @ MD
78 - 72
Jan 21, 2026
MD @ ILL
70 - 89
Mar 14, 2025
ILL @ MD
65 - 88
Jan 23, 2025
MD @ ILL
91 - 70
Feb 17, 2024
ILL @ MD
85 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+48.1% more
Illinois: 14.3
vs
Maryland: 9.7
Blocks (L5)
+23.7% more
Illinois: 4.1
vs
Maryland: 3.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.7%
Illinois: 87.0%
vs
Maryland: 71.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+10.9% more
Illinois: 39.9
vs
Maryland: 36.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
43.0
70
ILL Score
89.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 36.6
38.0 / 31.0
Assists
14.3 / 9.7
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.3
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 43.5
44.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
87.0 / 71.3
71.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
39.9 / 36.0
47.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.9 / 4.7
2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 11.7
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
MD
ILL
MD
ML
65%
24-13
70%
23-10
57%
20-15
67%
22-11
ATS
70%
26-11
64%
21-12
57%
20-15
67%
22-11
TTL
57%
21-16
64%
21-12
100%
35-0
100%
33-0
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