DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
30-16-4 | Road
2
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
24-17-8 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
John Gibson
#36 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Gibson | None-None | 0.95 | 0.968 | -- |
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.95
GAA
--
0.968
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
RED WINGS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
DET By 1 goal
12.1%
DET By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Wings (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
DET @ TOR
2 - 1
Dec 28, 2025
TOR @ DET
2 - 3
Oct 13, 2025
DET @ TOR
3 - 2
Oct 11, 2025
TOR @ DET
3 - 6
Oct 4, 2025
TOR @ DET
5 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+25.7% more
Toronto: 5.1
vs
Detroit: 4.0
Hits (L5)
+24.1% more
Toronto: 20.3
vs
Detroit: 16.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+11.7%
Toronto: 56.6%
vs
Detroit: 44.9%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.8% more
Toronto: 29.6
vs
Detroit: 26.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.0
2
TOR Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.2 / 15.7
16.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
56.6 / 44.9
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
20.3 / 16.3
22.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
2679.0 / 3147.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.6 / 26.7
31.0 / 41.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 4.0
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
Nashville Predators' Early Season: Three Burning Questions After…