Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Warriors TOR @ GS

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

25-19  |  Road

145
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

25-19  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
RAPTORS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Golden State)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

42.1%

Warriors Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

TOR By 1-7 points

23.0%

TOR By 8-14 points

12.2%

GS By 1-7 points

26.8%

GS By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
118
TORONTO
120
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
109
TORONTO
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o224.5 Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim u224.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 TOR @ GS 145 - 127
Dec 28, 2025 GS @ TOR 127 - 141
Mar 20, 2025 TOR @ GS 114 - 117
Jan 13, 2025 GS @ TOR 101 - 104
Mar 1, 2024 GS @ TOR 120 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.7% more
Golden State: 9.4 vs Toronto: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +15.6%
Golden State: 42.4% vs Toronto: 26.8%
Assists (L5) +12.3% more
Golden State: 33.6 vs Toronto: 29.9
Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Golden State: 51.7% vs Toronto: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 118.0 145
GS Score 120.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.4 / 26.8 37.0 / 62.0
Assists 33.6 / 29.9 28.0 / 42.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.8 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.7 / 44.7 52.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 81.4 / 75.1 65.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 41.9 36.0 / 37.0
Steals 9.4 / 6.4 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 12.2 19.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
TOR
GS
TOR
ML
55% 95-79
55% 57-47
58% 49-35
55% 48-39
ATS
58% 101-73
61% 62-40-2
58% 49-35
55% 48-39
TTL
77% 134-40
60% 62-42
100% 84-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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