LSU
TIGERSLSU
13-5 | Road
61
FLORIDA
GATORSFLA
13-5 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
GATORS
0%
TIGERS
--
GATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FLA -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
LSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
LSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
FLA By 1-7 points
1.4%
FLA By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
LSU
64
LSU
Florida
93
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
LSU
74
LSU
Florida
78
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gators
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gators (-15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Gators (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 20, 2026
LSU @ FLA
61 - 79
Feb 22, 2025
FLA @ LSU
79 - 65
Feb 13, 2024
LSU @ FLA
80 - 82
Mar 4, 2023
LSU @ FLA
67 - 79
Jan 10, 2023
FLA @ LSU
67 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.7% more
Florida: 5.2
vs
LSU: 4.0
Rebounding (L5)
+24.2% more
Florida: 43.5
vs
LSU: 35.0
Assists (L5)
+20.4% more
Florida: 15.7
vs
LSU: 13.0
Steals (L5)
+10.9% more
Florida: 6.4
vs
LSU: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LSU Score
64.0
61
FLA Score
93.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.1 / 38.0
33.0 / 27.0
Assists
15.7 / 13.0
15.0 / 12.0
Blocks
5.2 / 4.0
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.4 / 45.3
41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 75.5
52.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
43.5 / 35.0
50.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.4 / 5.8
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 10.7
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
--
FLA
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
--
FLA
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
--
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
LSU
FLA
LSU
ML
77%
27-8
62%
20-12
63%
22-13
62%
20-12
ATS
69%
24-11
66%
21-11
63%
22-13
62%
20-12
TTL
63%
22-13
72%
23-9
100%
35-0
100%
32-0
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