BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
12-6 | Road
72
WESTERN MICHIGAN
BRONCOSWMU
7-11 | Home
54
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
BRONCOS
100%
FALCONS
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BGSU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
BGSU By 1-7 points
6.8%
BGSU By 8-14 points
16.9%
WMU By 1-7 points
1.4%
WMU By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
101
BOWLING GREEN
Western Michigan
80
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
72
BOWLING GREEN
Western Michigan
68
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Falcons (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
WMU @ BGSU
88 - 79
Jan 20, 2026
BGSU @ WMU
72 - 54
Mar 7, 2025
WMU @ BGSU
64 - 63
Jan 7, 2025
BGSU @ WMU
83 - 79
Mar 5, 2024
BGSU @ WMU
73 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+38.5% more
Bowling Green: 8.2
vs
Western Michigan: 5.1
Blocks (L5)
+29.0% more
Bowling Green: 3.0
vs
Western Michigan: 2.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Bowling Green: 45.5%
vs
Western Michigan: 39.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
Bowling Green: 73.9%
vs
Western Michigan: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
101.0
72
WMU Score
80.0
54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 45.5
23.0 / 25.0
Assists
15.9 / 13.6
8.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.1 / 3.0
6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 50.0
34.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
70.6 / 73.9
77.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
34.0 / 32.5
39.0 / 39.0
Steals
5.1 / 8.2
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 11.3
15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
WMU
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
WMU
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
BGSU
WMU
BGSU
ML
60%
18-12
66%
21-11
70%
21-9
56%
18-14
ATS
67%
20-10
72%
23-9
70%
21-9
56%
18-14
TTL
57%
17-13
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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