Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hoosiers @ Wolverines IU @ MICH

INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

12-6  |  Road

72
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Crisler Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

16-1  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
100%
📊
WOLVERINES
0%
HOOSIERS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Michigan)
HoosiersIU (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoosiers Cover

30.9%

Wolverines Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

IU By 1-7 points

18.6%

IU By 8-14 points

8.0%

MICH By 1-7 points

27.2%

MICH By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
78
INDIANA
83
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
70
INDIANA
78
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolverines (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 IU @ MICH 72 - 86
Feb 8, 2025 MICH @ IU 70 - 67
Dec 5, 2023 IU @ MICH 78 - 75
Mar 5, 2023 MICH @ IU 73 - 75
Feb 11, 2023 IU @ MICH 62 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +304.0% more
Michigan: 6.0 vs Indiana: 1.5
Rebounding (L5) +31.6% more
Michigan: 38.3 vs Indiana: 29.1
Steals (L5) +24.6% more
Michigan: 5.6 vs Indiana: 4.5
Assists (L5) +18.9% more
Michigan: 16.2 vs Indiana: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 78.0 72
MICH Score 83.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 31.5 40.0 / 32.0
Assists 16.2 / 13.7 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 6.0 / 1.5 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 42.9 51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 76.7 67.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 29.1 41.0 / 25.0
Steals 5.6 / 4.5 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 11.2 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
MICH Advantage
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
IU
MICH
IU
ML
78% 31-9
66% 21-11
63% 24-14
71% 22-9
ATS
78% 31-9
53% 17-15
63% 24-14
71% 22-9
TTL
57% 23-17
56% 18-14
100% 38-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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