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MID-ATLANTIC CHRISTIAN

MUSTANGSMATC

0-0  |  Road

50
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Smith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE

BULLDOGSSCST

3-16  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
MUSTANGS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (South Carolina State)
MustangsMATC (-3.5) 0 BulldogsSCST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

42.1%

Bulldogs Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SCST -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCST)

MATC By 1-7 points

23.0%

MATC By 8-14 points

12.2%

SCST By 1-7 points

26.8%

SCST By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
88
MID-ATLANTIC CHRISTIAN
90
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Simulated Score
52
MID-ATLANTIC CHRISTIAN
88
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 MATC @ SCST 50 - 56
Feb 8, 2025 MATC @ SCST 75 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +244.6% more
South Carolina State: 3.9 vs Mid-Atlantic Christian: 1.1
Assists (L5) +50.3% more
South Carolina State: 13.5 vs Mid-Atlantic Christian: 9.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +18.3%
South Carolina State: 38.3% vs Mid-Atlantic Christian: 20.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +16.5%
South Carolina State: 66.4% vs Mid-Atlantic Christian: 49.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MATC Score 88.0 50
SCST Score 90.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 20.0 14.0 / 63.0
Assists 13.5 / 9.0 9.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.9 / 1.1 8.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 34.4 34.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 66.4 / 49.8 64.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 29.3 / 28.7 44.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.2 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 14.0 18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MATC
--
SCST Advantage
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MATC
--
SCST Advantage
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MATC
--
SCST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SCST
MATC
SCST
MATC
ML
61% 19-12
75% 3-1
74% 20-7
100% 4-0
ATS
68% 21-10
75% 3-1
74% 20-7
100% 4-0
TTL
52% 16-15
75% 3-1
100% 27-0
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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