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NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

12-6  |  Road

80
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Littlejohn Coliseum
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

TIGERSCLEM

16-3  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
WOLFPACK --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (NC State)
WolfpackNCSU (-3.5) 0 TigersCLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolfpack Cover

95.5%

Tigers Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NCSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

NCSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

NCSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

CLEM By 1-7 points

3.3%

CLEM By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
85
NC STATE
68
CLEMSON
Simulated Score
68
NC STATE
72
CLEMSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolfpack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolfpack (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 NCSU @ CLEM 80 - 76
Feb 1, 2025 CLEM @ NCSU 68 - 58
Feb 17, 2024 NCSU @ CLEM 78 - 77
Mar 9, 2023 NCSU @ CLEM 54 - 80
Feb 25, 2023 CLEM @ NCSU 96 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +53.8% more
NC State: 4.7 vs Clemson: 2.2
Assists (L5) +29.8% more
NC State: 17.3 vs Clemson: 12.2
Steals (L5) +17.8% more
NC State: 11.0 vs Clemson: 9.0
Rebounding (L5) +11.9% more
NC State: 35.3 vs Clemson: 31.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 85.0 80
CLEM Score 68.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 42.2 32.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.2 / 17.3 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.2 / 4.7 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 44.4 45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 68.6 63.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 31.1 / 35.3 38.0 / 30.0
Steals 9.0 / 11.0 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 9.0 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
CLEM Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
CLEM
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
CLEM
13-21-0
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
NCSU
CLEM
NCSU
ML
63% 22-13
59% 20-14
72% 23-9
55% 18-15
ATS
71% 25-10
71% 24-10
72% 23-9
55% 18-15
TTL
69% 24-11
71% 24-10
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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