Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Boilermakers @ Bruins PUR @ UCLA

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

17-1  |  Road

67
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 10:00 PM ET
Pauley Pavilion
View Odds Details →

UCLA

BRUINSUCLA

12-6  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
0%
📊
BRUINS
100%
BOILERMAKERS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
96.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Purdue)
BoilermakersPUR (-3.5) 0 BruinsUCLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boilermakers Cover

84.1%

Bruins Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PUR -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

PUR By 1-7 points

23.0%

PUR By 8-14 points

27.2%

UCLA By 1-7 points

10.7%

UCLA By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
53
PURDUE
43
UCLA
Simulated Score
74
PURDUE
68
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 96.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 PUR @ UCLA 73 - 66
Jan 20, 2026 PUR @ UCLA 67 - 69
Feb 28, 2025 UCLA @ PUR 66 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.3% more
Purdue: 20.0 vs UCLA: 14.2
Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Purdue: 50.1% vs UCLA: 43.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Purdue: 37.0% vs UCLA: 33.2%
Blocks (L5) +66.1% more
UCLA: 3.2 vs Purdue: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 53.0 67
UCLA Score 43.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 37.0 45.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.2 / 20.0 21.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.2 / 1.9 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 50.1 57.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 80.2 / 72.0 67.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 29.8 / 31.6 24.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.6 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 8.3 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
UCLA
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
UCLA Advantage
17-18-1 (48.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
PUR
UCLA
PUR
ML
67% 24-12
67% 26-13
76% 25-8
66% 25-13
ATS
61% 22-14
64% 25-14
76% 25-8
66% 25-13
TTL
61% 22-14
51% 20-19
100% 33-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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