SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
13-5 | Road
91
WAKE FOREST
DEMON DEACONSWAKE
11-7 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
DEMON DEACONS
0%
MUSTANGS
--
DEMON DEACONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Wake Forest)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WAKE -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)
SMU By 1-7 points
4.8%
SMU By 8-14 points
1.1%
WAKE By 1-7 points
15.3%
WAKE By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
SMU
75
SMU
Wake Forest
90
WAKE FOREST
Simulated Score
SMU
73
SMU
Wake Forest
78
WAKE FOREST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Demon Deacons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demon Deacons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Demon Deacons (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Demon Deacons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o157.5
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 20, 2026
SMU @ WAKE
91 - 79
Feb 15, 2025
WAKE @ SMU
77 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+63.3% more
Wake Forest: 9.5
vs
SMU: 5.8
Blocks (L5)
+45.1% more
SMU: 4.2
vs
Wake Forest: 2.3
Rebounding (L5)
+17.9% more
SMU: 34.6
vs
Wake Forest: 28.4
Assists (L5)
+16.7% more
SMU: 14.0
vs
Wake Forest: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMU Score
75.0
91
WAKE Score
90.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 36.1
33.0 / 50.0
Assists
11.7 / 14.0
20.0 / 23.0
Blocks
2.3 / 4.2
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 47.9
44.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 78.3
72.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
28.4 / 34.6
28.0 / 40.0
Steals
9.5 / 5.8
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 11.5
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
WAKE
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
WAKE
Advantage
16-18-1
(47.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
WAKE
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
SMU
WAKE
SMU
ML
49%
17-18
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
ATS
66%
23-12
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
TTL
60%
21-14
56%
19-15
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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