Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Rebels AUB @ MISS

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

11-7  |  Road

78
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 9:00 PM ET
The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

11-7  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
REBELS
0%
TIGERS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Ole Miss)
TigersAUB (-3.5) 0 RebelsMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

5.5%

Rebels Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MISS -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

AUB By 1-7 points

4.0%

AUB By 8-14 points

0.8%

MISS By 1-7 points

13.7%

MISS By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
73
AUBURN
89
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
68
AUBURN
78
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 MISS @ AUB 85 - 79
Jan 20, 2026 AUB @ MISS 78 - 66
Mar 14, 2025 MISS @ AUB 57 - 62
Feb 26, 2025 MISS @ AUB 76 - 106
Feb 1, 2025 AUB @ MISS 92 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Ole Miss: 77.4% vs Auburn: 73.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Ole Miss: 29.4% vs Auburn: 26.6%
Steals (L5) +34.4% more
Auburn: 8.5 vs Ole Miss: 5.6
Turnovers (L5) +30.8% more
Auburn: 11.3 vs Ole Miss: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 73.0 78
MISS Score 89.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.4 / 26.6 36.0 / 12.0
Assists 11.9 / 13.1 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.2 / 5.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 44.9 36.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 73.4 80.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 36.6 26.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.6 / 8.5 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 11.3 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB Advantage
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
MISS
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB Advantage
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
MISS
--
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
MISS
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
AUB
MISS
AUB
ML
48% 16-17
58% 22-16
52% 17-16
75% 24-8
ATS
61% 20-13
74% 28-10
52% 17-16
75% 24-8
TTL
64% 21-12
53% 20-18
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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