MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
17-24 | Road
112
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
20-24 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
HAWKS
100%
BUCKS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
18.6%
MIL By 8-14 points
26.8%
ATL By 1-7 points
6.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
120
MILWAUKEE
Atlanta
107
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
114
MILWAUKEE
Atlanta
122
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
MIL @ ATL
99 - 122
Mar 4, 2026
ATL @ MIL
131 - 113
Jan 19, 2026
MIL @ ATL
112 - 110
Mar 30, 2025
ATL @ MIL
145 - 124
Mar 4, 2025
MIL @ ATL
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+12.3% more
Milwaukee: 14.6
vs
Atlanta: 12.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Milwaukee: 36.9%
vs
Atlanta: 33.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Milwaukee: 44.9%
vs
Atlanta: 42.6%
Steals (L5)
+41.7% more
Atlanta: 10.5
vs
Milwaukee: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
120.0
112
ATL Score
107.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 36.9
29.0 / 44.0
Assists
28.6 / 26.3
33.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.7
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 44.9
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 70.0
83.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 38.4
51.0 / 47.0
Steals
10.5 / 7.4
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 14.6
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIL
ATL
MIL
ML
50%
52-52
64%
61-35
55%
48-40
60%
49-32
ATS
53%
55-48-1
68%
65-31
55%
48-40
60%
49-32
TTL
53%
55-48-1
55%
53-43
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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