Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Spurs UTAH @ SA

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

14-28  |  Road

110
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 5:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

29-13  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
JAZZ --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (San Antonio)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

27.4%

Spurs Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

UTAH By 1-7 points

16.9%

UTAH By 8-14 points

6.8%

SA By 1-7 points

26.8%

SA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
118
UTAH
124
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
105
UTAH
120
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spurs (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o241.0 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u241.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 SA @ UTAH 126 - 109
Jan 19, 2026 UTAH @ SA 110 - 123
Dec 27, 2025 UTAH @ SA 127 - 114
Oct 10, 2025 UTAH @ SA 130 - 134
Nov 26, 2024 SA @ UTAH 128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +14.2% more
San Antonio: 46.5 vs Utah: 40.7
Blocks (L5) +11.1% more
San Antonio: 3.5 vs Utah: 3.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
San Antonio: 36.0% vs Utah: 31.4%
Turnovers (L5) +17.0% more
Utah: 15.4 vs San Antonio: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 118.0 110
SA Score 124.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 31.4 42.0 / 35.0
Assists 27.6 / 30.5 32.0 / 31.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.2 12.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 50.8 56.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 77.2 76.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 46.5 / 40.7 38.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.3 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 15.4 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
UTAH
SA
UTAH
ML
60% 111-73
60% 96-63
58% 61-44
48% 40-43
ATS
58% 107-76-1
68% 108-51
58% 61-44
48% 40-43
TTL
74% 134-47-3
75% 119-39-1
100% 105-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
nypost 22 minutes ago
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
si 6 hours, 26 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
bleacherreport 6 hours, 42 minutes ago
Wallabies Select Suaalii on Wing, Henry to Debut in Bledisloe Cu…
players_bio 12 hours, 42 minutes ago
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
si 12 hours, 53 minutes ago