TEXAS SOUTHERN
TIGERSTXSO
4-12 | Road
89
JACKSON STATE
TIGERSJKST
4-13 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
TIGERS
100%
TIGERS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-43.0
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +43.0 points (Texas Southern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TXSO -43.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXSO)
TXSO By 1-7 points
0.0%
TXSO By 8-14 points
0.2%
JKST By 1-7 points
0.0%
JKST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas Southern
98
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Jackson State
55
JACKSON STATE
Simulated Score
Texas Southern
69
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Jackson State
72
JACKSON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
JKST @ TXSO
57 - 82
Jan 19, 2026
TXSO @ JKST
89 - 94
Mar 1, 2025
TXSO @ JKST
52 - 67
Jan 20, 2025
JKST @ TXSO
73 - 81
Mar 14, 2024
JKST @ TXSO
62 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.5% more
Texas Southern: 6.5
vs
Jackson State: 5.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Texas Southern: 45.9%
vs
Jackson State: 43.0%
Blocks (L5)
+14.1% more
Jackson State: 3.1
vs
Texas Southern: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+12.6% more
Jackson State: 13.7
vs
Texas Southern: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXSO Score
98.0
89
JKST Score
55.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.1 / 32.9
38.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.7 / 12.2
20.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.7
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 45.9
53.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
75.9 / 72.1
86.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 33.6
32.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.3 / 6.5
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 12.7
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXSO
Advantage
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
JKST
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -13.5
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXSO
9-19-0
(32.1%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
JKST
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -13.5
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.3
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JKST
TXSO
JKST
TXSO
ML
77%
24-7
64%
18-10
73%
19-7
71%
17-7
ATS
77%
24-7
61%
17-11
73%
19-7
71%
17-7
TTL
58%
18-13
71%
20-8
100%
26-0
100%
24-0
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