NEW HAVEN
CHARGERSNHVN
8-10 | Road
62
CHICAGO STATE
COUGARSCHST
2-16 | Home
56
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
0%
COUGARS
100%
CHARGERS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
NEW HAVEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (New Haven)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NHVN -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NHVN)
NHVN By 1-7 points
0.0%
NHVN By 8-14 points
0.4%
CHST By 1-7 points
0.0%
CHST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New Haven
101
NEW HAVEN
Chicago State
60
CHICAGO STATE
Simulated Score
New Haven
68
NEW HAVEN
Chicago State
75
CHICAGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Chargers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Chargers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o129.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u129.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
CHST @ NHVN
63 - 57
Jan 19, 2026
NHVN @ CHST
62 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+12.4% more
New Haven: 14.4
vs
Chicago State: 12.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
New Haven: 47.6%
vs
Chicago State: 40.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
New Haven: 39.0%
vs
Chicago State: 36.5%
Steals (L5)
+51.7% more
Chicago State: 9.0
vs
New Haven: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NHVN Score
101.0
62
CHST Score
60.0
56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 39.0
29.0 / 30.0
Assists
12.6 / 14.4
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.5 / 1.6
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.8 / 47.6
43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
71.7 / 69.4
75.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
28.1 / 27.3
23.0 / 36.0
Steals
9.0 / 5.9
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.6
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NHVN
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHST
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NHVN
Advantage
15-13-0
(53.6%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHST
15-15-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -3.5
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHST
NHVN
CHST
NHVN
ML
75%
24-8
71%
22-9
73%
22-8
68%
21-10
ATS
69%
22-10
74%
23-8
73%
22-8
68%
21-10
TTL
44%
14-18
42%
13-18
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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