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STONEHILL

SKYHAWKSSTO

6-12  |  Road

61
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 12:00 PM ET
DeGol Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

4-14  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
0%
📊
RED FLASH
100%
SKYHAWKS --
RED FLASH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
STONEHILL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Stonehill)
SkyhawksSTO (-3.5) 0 Red FlashSFPA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

96.4%

Red Flash Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STO -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STO)

STO By 1-7 points

10.7%

STO By 8-14 points

21.6%

SFPA By 1-7 points

2.7%

SFPA By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
72
STONEHILL
54
SAINT FRANCIS
Simulated Score
68
STONEHILL
72
SAINT FRANCIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Skyhawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Flash Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Skyhawks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Red Flash (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 SFPA @ STO 77 - 103
Jan 19, 2026 STO @ SFPA 61 - 63
Feb 13, 2025 SFPA @ STO 74 - 79
Jan 5, 2025 STO @ SFPA 64 - 60
Feb 24, 2024 SFPA @ STO 63 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +66.2% more
Stonehill: 3.1 vs Saint Francis: 1.1
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
Stonehill: 14.3 vs Saint Francis: 10.1
Rebounding (L5) +21.1% more
Stonehill: 39.0 vs Saint Francis: 30.8
Steals (L5) +89.7% more
Saint Francis: 6.6 vs Stonehill: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STO Score 72.0 61
SFPA Score 54.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 34.4 35.0 / 37.0
Assists 15.0 / 14.2 7.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.1 / 3.1 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 43.2 35.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 63.8 61.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 30.8 / 39.0 31.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.6 / 3.5 12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 14.3 7.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STO Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STO Advantage
14-15-2 (48.3%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5% Total +/-: -4.0
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFPA
STO
SFPA
STO
ML
68% 21-10
45% 15-18
67% 20-10
70% 23-10
ATS
68% 21-10
39% 13-20
67% 20-10
70% 23-10
TTL
58% 18-13
55% 18-15
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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