Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Friars @ Golden Eagles PROV @ MARQ

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

9-9  |  Road

104
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 6:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

6-13  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
0%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
FRIARS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Providence)
FriarsPROV (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Friars Cover

90.3%

Golden Eagles Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PROV -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)

PROV By 1-7 points

18.6%

PROV By 8-14 points

26.8%

MARQ By 1-7 points

6.8%

MARQ By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
75
PROVIDENCE
62
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
72
PROVIDENCE
75
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Friars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Friars (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u166.5 Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 MARQ @ PROV 78 - 56
Jan 19, 2026 PROV @ MARQ 104 - 105
Feb 25, 2025 PROV @ MARQ 52 - 82
Dec 31, 2024 MARQ @ PROV 78 - 50
Mar 15, 2024 PROV @ MARQ 68 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +19.3% more
Providence: 38.8 vs Marquette: 31.3
Blocks (L5) +18.9% more
Providence: 3.3 vs Marquette: 2.7
Free Throw % (L5) +15.8%
Providence: 72.1% vs Marquette: 56.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Providence: 47.5% vs Marquette: 44.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PROV Score 75.0 104
MARQ Score 62.0 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 31.1 35.0 / 41.0
Assists 15.1 / 14.2 22.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 47.5 53.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 56.3 / 72.1 63.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 38.8 30.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.5 16.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 11.6 6.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
PROV
MARQ
PROV
ML
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
67% 20-10
ATS
53% 17-15
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
67% 20-10
TTL
50% 16-16
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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