MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
27-13-9 | Road
6
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
24-16-8 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 3.00 | 0.900 | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | 19-3 | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
19-3
3.00
GAA
--
0.900
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
WILD
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MIN By 1 goal
19.7%
MIN By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Minnesota
2
MINNESOTA
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wild
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
TOR @ MIN
4 - 2
Jan 19, 2026
MIN @ TOR
6 - 3
Jan 29, 2025
MIN @ TOR
3 - 1
Nov 3, 2024
TOR @ MIN
1 - 2
Nov 19, 2023
TOR @ MIN
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.0% more
Minnesota: 32.3
vs
Toronto: 29.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+38.6% more
Toronto: 15.3
vs
Minnesota: 11.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.1%
Toronto: 58.0%
vs
Minnesota: 48.9%
Power Play % (L5)
+7.1%
Toronto: 27.7%
vs
Minnesota: 20.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.0
6
TOR Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.3 / 11.1
15.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
58.0 / 48.9
53.7 / 46.3
Hits
18.9 / 20.4
23.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
27.7 / 20.5
25.0 / 66.7
Shots on Goal
29.4 / 32.3
30.0 / 38.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 5.2
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIN
TOR
MIN
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
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