Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Mastodons MILW @ PFW

MILWAUKEE

PANTHERSMILW

8-11  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sun, Jan 18 • 2:00 PM ET
Memorial Coliseum (IN)
View Odds Details →

PURDUE FORT WAYNE

MASTODONSPFW

11-8  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
MASTODONS
100%
PANTHERS --
MASTODONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Milwaukee)
PanthersMILW (-3.5) 0 MastodonsPFW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

88.5%

Mastodons Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MILW -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MILW)

MILW By 1-7 points

20.1%

MILW By 8-14 points

27.2%

PFW By 1-7 points

8.0%

PFW By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
MILWAUKEE
57
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Simulated Score
70
MILWAUKEE
75
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mastodons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Mastodons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 18, 2026 MILW @ PFW 82 - 100
Dec 29, 2025 PFW @ MILW 55 - 77
Feb 2, 2025 PFW @ MILW 81 - 79
Jan 8, 2025 MILW @ PFW 73 - 78
Feb 25, 2024 PFW @ MILW 88 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +24.0% more
Milwaukee: 37.5 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 28.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.5%
Purdue Fort Wayne: 38.4% vs Milwaukee: 25.9%
Blocks (L5) +10.4% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 3.5 vs Milwaukee: 3.2
Free Throw % (L5) +7.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne: 69.7% vs Milwaukee: 62.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MILW Score 69.0 82
PFW Score 57.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 25.9 57.0 / 41.0
Assists 13.2 / 13.3 20.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.2 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 44.5 56.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 62.7 79.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 28.5 / 37.5 31.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.4 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 11.3 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MILW
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
PFW Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MILW
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
PFW Advantage
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MILW
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.0
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PFW
MILW
PFW
MILW
ML
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
74% 23-8
69% 22-10
ATS
62% 20-12
47% 15-17
74% 23-8
69% 22-10
TTL
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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