UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
4-13 | Road
69
MEMPHIS
TIGERSMEM
8-8 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
TIGERS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
UTSA By 1-7 points
0.0%
UTSA By 8-14 points
0.0%
MEM By 1-7 points
0.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
62
UTSA
Memphis
107
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
UTSA
65
UTSA
Memphis
78
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-20.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
UTSA @ MEM
69 - 95
Mar 4, 2025
MEM @ UTSA
75 - 70
Jan 10, 2024
UTSA @ MEM
101 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+68.5% more
Memphis: 10.4
vs
UTSA: 6.2
Assists (L5)
+52.5% more
Memphis: 13.9
vs
UTSA: 9.1
Blocks (L5)
+40.2% more
Memphis: 5.2
vs
UTSA: 3.7
Turnovers (L5)
+17.3% more
Memphis: 14.2
vs
UTSA: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
62.0
69
MEM Score
107.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 27.0
50.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.9 / 9.1
23.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.2 / 3.7
6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 38.0
56.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
63.1 / 72.5
67.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
35.4 / 33.2
38.0 / 33.0
Steals
10.4 / 6.2
12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 12.1
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
MEM
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
MEM
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
UTSA
MEM
UTSA
ML
62%
20-12
83%
24-5
68%
21-10
48%
14-15
ATS
62%
20-12
72%
21-8
68%
21-10
50%
15-15
TTL
66%
21-11
66%
19-10
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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