WASHINGTON STATE
COUGARSWSU
8-11 | Road
80
SAN FRANCISCO
DONSSF
12-8 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
DONS
100%
COUGARS
--
DONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SF +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
WSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
WSU By 8-14 points
23.0%
SF By 1-7 points
18.6%
SF By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington State
77
WASHINGTON STATE
San Francisco
72
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Washington State
70
WASHINGTON STATE
San Francisco
75
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cougars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dons (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Dons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
WSU @ SF
80 - 85
Mar 9, 2025
WSU @ SF
75 - 86
Feb 1, 2025
WSU @ SF
51 - 75
Jan 4, 2025
SF @ WSU
82 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+28.1% more
Washington State: 14.6
vs
San Francisco: 10.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.4%
Washington State: 65.7%
vs
San Francisco: 56.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Washington State: 45.6%
vs
San Francisco: 42.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Washington State: 37.8%
vs
San Francisco: 36.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSU Score
77.0
80
SF Score
72.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 37.8
55.0 / 48.0
Assists
13.5 / 12.8
18.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.1
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
42.8 / 45.6
54.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
56.3 / 65.7
83.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 33.4
30.0 / 23.0
Steals
5.7 / 5.4
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 14.6
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
SF
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
SF
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.0
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
WSU
SF
WSU
ML
39%
13-20
78%
25-7
64%
21-12
69%
20-9
ATS
42%
14-19
78%
25-7
64%
21-12
69%
20-9
TTL
73%
24-9
62%
20-12
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
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