Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Jaguars UL @ USA

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

4-15  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:00 PM ET
Mitchell Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

13-5  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Louisiana)
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 JaguarsUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

98.2%

Jaguars Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UL -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

UL By 1-7 points

6.8%

UL By 8-14 points

16.9%

USA By 1-7 points

1.4%

USA By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
83
LOUISIANA
62
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
69
LOUISIANA
74
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ragin' Cajuns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ragin' Cajuns (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o127.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u127.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 UL @ USA 59 - 56
Dec 31, 2025 USA @ UL 63 - 58
Feb 28, 2025 UL @ USA 42 - 65
Feb 1, 2025 USA @ UL 62 - 58
Feb 3, 2024 USA @ UL 60 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.9% more
Louisiana: 4.3 vs South Alabama: 2.7
Turnovers (L5) +10.3% more
Louisiana: 10.6 vs South Alabama: 9.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Louisiana: 36.3% vs South Alabama: 33.3%
Steals (L5) +54.9% more
South Alabama: 8.8 vs Louisiana: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 83.0 59
USA Score 62.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 36.3 47.0 / 36.0
Assists 11.7 / 10.2 9.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.3 1.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 41.2 43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 68.6 30.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 26.7 37.0 / 27.0
Steals 8.8 / 5.7 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 10.6 8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
UL
USA
UL
ML
47% 15-17
66% 21-11
57% 17-13
63% 19-11
ATS
53% 17-15
66% 21-11
57% 17-13
63% 19-11
TTL
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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