Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Skyhawks LIN @ UTM

LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

11-7  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:30 PM ET
Kathleen and Tom Elam Center
View Odds Details →

UT MARTIN

SKYHAWKSUTM

14-4  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
SKYHAWKS
100%
LIONS --
SKYHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
LINDENWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Lindenwood)
LionsLIN (-3.5) 0 SkyhawksUTM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

90.3%

Skyhawks Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIN)

LIN By 1-7 points

18.6%

LIN By 8-14 points

26.8%

UTM By 1-7 points

6.8%

UTM By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
63
LINDENWOOD
50
UT MARTIN
Simulated Score
72
LINDENWOOD
75
UT MARTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Skyhawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Skyhawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 UTM @ LIN 74 - 75
Jan 17, 2026 LIN @ UTM 55 - 69
Feb 6, 2025 LIN @ UTM 52 - 51
Jan 11, 2025 UTM @ LIN 81 - 82
Feb 22, 2024 UTM @ LIN 106 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
Lindenwood: 14.0 vs UT Martin: 10.9
Steals (L5) +18.0% more
Lindenwood: 8.1 vs UT Martin: 6.6
Turnovers (L5) +14.5% more
Lindenwood: 14.2 vs UT Martin: 12.2
Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Lindenwood: 47.2% vs UT Martin: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 63.0 55
UTM Score 50.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 32.6 30.0 / 11.0
Assists 10.9 / 14.0 15.0 / 6.0
Blocks 5.3 / 3.7 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 47.2 44.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 68.8 73.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 42.3 / 36.7 41.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.6 / 8.1 11.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 14.2 17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTM Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTM Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -8.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTM
LIN
UTM
LIN
ML
69% 22-10
47% 15-17
69% 20-9
61% 19-12
ATS
56% 18-14
34% 11-21
69% 20-9
61% 19-12
TTL
44% 14-18
53% 17-15
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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