Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Skyhawks @ Lakers STO @ MERC

STONEHILL

SKYHAWKSSTO

5-12  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 2:00 PM ET
Mercyhurst Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

7-10  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
SKYHAWKS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Mercyhurst)
SkyhawksSTO (-3.5) 0 LakersMERC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

38.2%

Lakers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MERC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)

STO By 1-7 points

21.6%

STO By 8-14 points

10.7%

MERC By 1-7 points

27.2%

MERC By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
77
STONEHILL
80
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
68
STONEHILL
72
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o128.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u128.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 STO @ MERC 51 - 56
Feb 28, 2026 MERC @ STO 75 - 72
Jan 17, 2026 STO @ MERC 62 - 57
Feb 15, 2025 MERC @ STO 73 - 85
Jan 3, 2025 STO @ MERC 69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +105.6% more
Mercyhurst: 7.7 vs Stonehill: 3.7
Blocks (L5) +19.2% more
Mercyhurst: 5.0 vs Stonehill: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5) +4.7%
Mercyhurst: 73.4% vs Stonehill: 68.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Mercyhurst: 46.1% vs Stonehill: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STO Score 77.0 62
MERC Score 80.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 36.0 18.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.0 / 14.8 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.2 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 43.7 35.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 68.7 54.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 37.5 40.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.7 / 3.7 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 13.9 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STO
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
MERC Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STO
14-15-2 (48.3%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5% Total +/-: -4.0
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
STO
MERC
STO
ML
59% 20-14
45% 15-18
79% 26-7
70% 23-10
ATS
62% 21-13
39% 13-20
79% 26-7
70% 23-10
TTL
53% 18-16
55% 18-15
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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