Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Braves TXSO @ ALCN

TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

3-12  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:00 PM ET
Davey L. Whitney Complex
View Odds Details →

ALCORN STATE

BRAVESALCN

2-13  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
TIGERS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ALCORN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Alcorn State)
TigersTXSO (-3.5) 0 BravesALCN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

38.2%

Braves Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALCN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALCN)

TXSO By 1-7 points

21.6%

TXSO By 8-14 points

10.7%

ALCN By 1-7 points

27.2%

ALCN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
65
TEXAS SOUTHERN
68
ALCORN STATE
Simulated Score
64
TEXAS SOUTHERN
68
ALCORN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Braves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.0 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u147.0 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 ALCN @ TXSO 87 - 92
Jan 17, 2026 TXSO @ ALCN 72 - 71
Mar 3, 2025 TXSO @ ALCN 75 - 59
Jan 18, 2025 ALCN @ TXSO 57 - 66
Mar 4, 2024 ALCN @ TXSO 82 - 79
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Alcorn State: 34.9% vs Texas Southern: 32.9%
Blocks (L5) +20.0% more
Texas Southern: 3.6 vs Alcorn State: 2.8
Assists (L5) +15.7% more
Texas Southern: 13.8 vs Alcorn State: 11.6
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
Texas Southern: 14.6 vs Alcorn State: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXSO Score 65.0 72
ALCN Score 68.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 32.9 25.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.6 / 13.8 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.6 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.1 / 44.9 42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 76.2 91.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 33.9 32.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.2 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 14.6 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXSO Advantage
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
ALCN
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
ALCN Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALCN
TXSO
ALCN
TXSO
ML
66% 21-11
64% 18-10
75% 18-6
71% 17-7
ATS
68% 21-10-1
61% 17-11
75% 18-6
71% 17-7
TTL
47% 15-17
71% 20-8
100% 24-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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