SOUTHERN
JAGUARSSOU
6-11 | Road
71
GRAMBLING
TIGERSGRAM
8-9 | Home
53
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
TIGERS
100%
JAGUARS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Southern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SOU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SOU)
SOU By 1-7 points
0.8%
SOU By 8-14 points
4.0%
GRAM By 1-7 points
0.1%
GRAM By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern
97
SOUTHERN
Grambling
66
GRAMBLING
Simulated Score
Southern
63
SOUTHERN
Grambling
67
GRAMBLING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jaguars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jaguars (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
GRAM @ SOU
73 - 87
Jan 17, 2026
SOU @ GRAM
71 - 53
Mar 12, 2025
GRAM @ SOU
65 - 62
Feb 22, 2025
SOU @ GRAM
71 - 64
Jan 18, 2025
GRAM @ SOU
60 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+35.8% more
Southern: 2.3
vs
Grambling: 1.5
Steals (L5)
+19.5% more
Southern: 10.9
vs
Grambling: 8.8
Rebounding (L5)
+16.6% more
Southern: 35.9
vs
Grambling: 30.0
Turnovers (L5)
+23.9% more
Grambling: 14.6
vs
Southern: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SOU Score
97.0
71
GRAM Score
66.0
53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 30.1
19.0 / 36.0
Assists
11.1 / 10.2
3.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.5 / 2.3
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 40.1
32.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
76.4 / 70.8
69.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
30.0 / 35.9
38.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.8 / 10.9
7.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 11.8
23.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.6
GRAM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.6
GRAM
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GRAM
SOU
GRAM
SOU
ML
68%
21-10
67%
22-11
68%
17-8
70%
21-9
ATS
61%
19-12
64%
21-12
68%
17-8
70%
21-9
TTL
58%
18-13
42%
14-19
100%
25-0
100%
30-0
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