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JACKSONVILLE

DOLPHINSJAX

6-12  |  Road

90
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 3:00 PM ET
Flowers Hall
View Odds Details →

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

6-10  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
DOLPHINS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-59.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +59.0 points (North Alabama)
DolphinsJAX (-3.5) 0 LionsUNA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

0.0%

Lions Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNA -59.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)

JAX By 1-7 points

0.0%

JAX By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNA By 1-7 points

0.0%

UNA By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
47
JACKSONVILLE
106
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
69
JACKSONVILLE
73
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -59.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u134.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 JAX @ UNA 90 - 68
Mar 6, 2025 JAX @ UNA 63 - 78
Feb 15, 2025 JAX @ UNA 79 - 92
Jan 16, 2025 UNA @ JAX 60 - 64
Feb 10, 2024 UNA @ JAX 63 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
North Alabama: 49.3% vs Jacksonville: 41.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
North Alabama: 38.1% vs Jacksonville: 33.7%
Steals (L5) +14.3% more
Jacksonville: 7.7 vs North Alabama: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
Jacksonville: 69.2% vs North Alabama: 67.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 47.0 90
UNA Score 106.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 33.7 19.0 / 57.0
Assists 11.4 / 11.0 9.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.5 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 41.2 44.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 67.3 / 69.2 77.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 33.5 23.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.7 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 9.2 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
UNA
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.4
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
JAX
UNA
JAX
ML
43% 13-17
74% 23-8
57% 16-12
60% 18-12
ATS
60% 18-12
65% 20-11
57% 16-12
61% 19-12
TTL
63% 19-11
65% 20-11
100% 28-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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