WINTHROP
EAGLESWIN
12-8 | Road
69
UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
8-11 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
EAGLES
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UNC Asheville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)
WIN By 1-7 points
4.0%
WIN By 8-14 points
0.8%
UNCA By 1-7 points
13.7%
UNCA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Winthrop
73
WINTHROP
UNC Asheville
89
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
Winthrop
70
WINTHROP
UNC Asheville
75
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.0
Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u153.0
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
UNCA @ WIN
71 - 84
Jan 17, 2026
WIN @ UNCA
69 - 67
Mar 8, 2025
WIN @ UNCA
86 - 67
Mar 1, 2025
UNCA @ WIN
90 - 103
Jan 18, 2025
WIN @ UNCA
84 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+9.5% more
UNC Asheville: 11.1
vs
Winthrop: 10.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
UNC Asheville: 40.6%
vs
Winthrop: 31.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.7%
UNC Asheville: 70.5%
vs
Winthrop: 66.8%
Blocks (L5)
+37.4% more
Winthrop: 3.7
vs
UNC Asheville: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIN Score
73.0
69
UNCA Score
89.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 31.9
20.0 / 35.0
Assists
9.2 / 14.2
9.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.7
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 45.0
35.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 66.8
72.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 43.9
38.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.4 / 6.6
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 10.2
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIN
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
UNCA
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIN
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
UNCA
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
WIN
UNCA
WIN
ML
53%
16-14
70%
23-10
63%
19-11
79%
26-7
ATS
57%
17-13
79%
26-7
63%
19-11
79%
26-7
TTL
60%
18-12
58%
19-14
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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