Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Spurs MIN @ SA

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

27-15  |  Road

123
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

28-13  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
SPURS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

46.0%

Spurs Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

MIN By 1-7 points

26.2%

MIN By 8-14 points

16.9%

SA By 1-7 points

24.3%

SA By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
122
MINNESOTA
121
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
108
MINNESOTA
120
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spurs (+4) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.0 Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim u232.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 15, 2026 SA @ MIN 139 - 109
May 12, 2026 MIN @ SA 97 - 126
May 10, 2026 SA @ MIN 109 - 114
May 8, 2026 SA @ MIN 115 - 108
May 6, 2026 MIN @ SA 95 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.8% more
Minnesota: 5.5 vs San Antonio: 2.8
Steals (L5) +23.0% more
Minnesota: 8.2 vs San Antonio: 6.3
Assists (L5) +12.8% more
Minnesota: 27.4 vs San Antonio: 23.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
Minnesota: 41.3% vs San Antonio: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 122.0 123
SA Score 121.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 41.3 39.0 / 41.0
Assists 23.9 / 27.4 35.0 / 22.0
Blocks 2.8 / 5.5 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 50.9 50.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 80.3 / 61.8 61.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 48.2 / 45.9 43.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.3 / 8.2 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 14.6 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
MIN
SA
MIN
ML
60% 111-73
54% 63-53
58% 61-44
54% 50-43
ATS
58% 107-76-1
58% 67-49
58% 61-44
54% 50-43
TTL
74% 134-47-3
63% 72-43-1
100% 105-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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