SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
17-2 | Road
54
SANTA CLARA
BRONCOSSCU
15-5 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
0%
BRONCOS
100%
GAELS
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMC -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
SMC By 1-7 points
0.1%
SMC By 8-14 points
0.6%
SCU By 1-7 points
0.0%
SCU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Mary's
103
SAINT MARY'S
Santa Clara
64
SANTA CLARA
Simulated Score
Saint Mary's
62
SAINT MARY'S
Santa Clara
71
SANTA CLARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Gaels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Gaels (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim
Broncos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
SCU @ SMC
76 - 71
Feb 25, 2026
SCU @ SMC
67 - 86
Jan 17, 2026
SMC @ SCU
54 - 62
Feb 11, 2025
SCU @ SMC
64 - 73
Jan 29, 2025
SMC @ SCU
67 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.1% more
Saint Mary's: 18.1
vs
Santa Clara: 15.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.2%
Saint Mary's: 46.4%
vs
Santa Clara: 35.2%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.6% more
Saint Mary's: 37.8
vs
Santa Clara: 34.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.6%
Saint Mary's: 88.4%
vs
Santa Clara: 83.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMC Score
103.0
54
SCU Score
64.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 46.4
21.0 / 18.0
Assists
15.7 / 18.1
7.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.5
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 49.1
41.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
83.8 / 88.4
75.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 37.8
35.0 / 40.0
Steals
9.4 / 6.1
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 10.7
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
SCU
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
SCU
17-16-1
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SCU
SMC
SCU
SMC
ML
44%
15-19
56%
18-14
73%
22-8
82%
23-5
ATS
53%
18-16
62%
20-12
74%
23-8
83%
24-5
TTL
47%
16-18
53%
17-15
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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