THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
4-14 | Road
82
VMI
KEYDETSVMI
6-12 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
KEYDETS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
KEYDETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (VMI)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VMI -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)
CIT By 1-7 points
0.0%
CIT By 8-14 points
0.0%
VMI By 1-7 points
0.0%
VMI By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
The Citadel
61
THE CITADEL
VMI
103
VMI
Simulated Score
The Citadel
68
THE CITADEL
VMI
75
VMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Keydets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Keydets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Keydets (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Keydets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
VMI @ CIT
56 - 80
Jan 17, 2026
CIT @ VMI
82 - 68
Mar 7, 2025
CIT @ VMI
62 - 73
Feb 8, 2025
CIT @ VMI
70 - 82
Jan 18, 2025
VMI @ CIT
75 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+154.4% more
VMI: 9.0
vs
The Citadel: 3.5
Blocks (L5)
+36.8% more
VMI: 3.6
vs
The Citadel: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+10.5% more
The Citadel: 13.1
vs
VMI: 11.7
Rebounding (L5)
+9.1% more
The Citadel: 34.2
vs
VMI: 31.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIT Score
61.0
82
VMI Score
103.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 33.8
33.0 / 45.0
Assists
11.9 / 11.1
11.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.7
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
37.2 / 41.2
43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
71.7 / 77.5
64.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
31.1 / 34.2
27.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.0 / 3.5
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 13.1
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
Advantage
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VMI
CIT
VMI
CIT
ML
53%
17-15
59%
19-13
84%
27-5
62%
20-12
ATS
50%
16-16
62%
20-12
84%
27-5
64%
21-12
TTL
62%
20-12
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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