SIU EDWARDSVILLE
COUGARSSIUE
10-8 | Road
68
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
9-9 | Home
55
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
REDHAWKS
100%
COUGARS
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SEMO +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)
SIUE By 1-7 points
26.2%
SIUE By 8-14 points
16.9%
SEMO By 1-7 points
24.3%
SEMO By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
SIU Edwardsville
75
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Southeast Missouri State
74
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
SIU Edwardsville
68
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Southeast Missouri State
72
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Redhawks (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Redhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
SEMO @ SIUE
56 - 74
Jan 17, 2026
SIUE @ SEMO
68 - 55
Mar 8, 2025
SIUE @ SEMO
69 - 48
Feb 27, 2025
SEMO @ SIUE
83 - 68
Dec 21, 2024
SIUE @ SEMO
64 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+19.1% more
SIU Edwardsville: 3.7
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 3.0
Rebounding (L5)
+9.5% more
SIU Edwardsville: 35.3
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 31.9
Steals (L5)
+18.7% more
Southeast Missouri State: 8.1
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 6.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Southeast Missouri State: 44.8%
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIUE Score
75.0
68
SEMO Score
74.0
55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 32.1
29.0 / 47.0
Assists
12.8 / 12.8
9.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.7
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 41.8
39.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
63.9 / 61.6
65.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 35.3
25.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.1 / 6.8
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 11.3
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIUE
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIUE
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SIUE
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -4.5
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
SIUE
SEMO
SIUE
ML
64%
21-12
65%
20-11
50%
15-15
60%
18-12
ATS
67%
22-11
55%
17-14
50%
15-15
60%
18-12
TTL
58%
19-14
48%
15-16
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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