Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Trail Blazers LAL @ POR

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

24-15  |  Road

116
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

20-22  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
LAKERS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

90.3%

Trail Blazers Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

LAL By 8-14 points

26.8%

POR By 1-7 points

6.8%

POR By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
118
LOS ANGELES
105
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
105
LOS ANGELES
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u223.0 Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u223.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 LAL @ POR 116 - 132
Nov 3, 2025 LAL @ POR 123 - 115
Oct 27, 2025 POR @ LAL 122 - 108
Apr 13, 2025 LAL @ POR 81 - 109
Feb 20, 2025 LAL @ POR 110 - 102
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Los Angeles: 38.0% vs Portland: 31.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Los Angeles: 49.0% vs Portland: 44.9%
Blocks (L5) +37.7% more
Portland: 4.3 vs Los Angeles: 3.1
Steals (L5) +33.6% more
Portland: 9.5 vs Los Angeles: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 118.0 116
POR Score 105.0 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 38.0 38.0 / 42.0
Assists 23.2 / 24.6 24.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.1 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 49.0 52.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 75.4 76.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 46.7 / 40.8 42.0 / 27.0
Steals 9.5 / 7.1 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 12.5 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
LAL
POR
LAL
ML
53% 56-49
61% 68-43
55% 49-40
54% 49-42
ATS
62% 65-39-1
61% 67-43-1
55% 49-40
54% 49-42
TTL
56% 58-46-1
61% 66-43-2
100% 89-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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