Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Colonels BELL @ EKU

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

6-11  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Baptist Health Arena
View Odds Details →

EASTERN KENTUCKY

COLONELSEKU

6-12  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
📊
COLONELS
100%
KNIGHTS --
COLONELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Bellarmine)
KnightsBELL (-3.5) 0 ColonelsEKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

100.0%

Colonels Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BELL -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)

BELL By 1-7 points

0.0%

BELL By 8-14 points

0.3%

EKU By 1-7 points

0.0%

EKU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
92
BELLARMINE
50
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
71
BELLARMINE
82
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colonels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim Colonels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 EKU @ BELL 95 - 92
Jan 17, 2026 BELL @ EKU 69 - 89
Feb 20, 2025 EKU @ BELL 74 - 80
Jan 18, 2025 BELL @ EKU 69 - 72
Feb 17, 2024 EKU @ BELL 75 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.3%
Bellarmine: 69.2% vs Eastern Kentucky: 62.9%
Turnovers (L5) +36.0% more
Eastern Kentucky: 12.3 vs Bellarmine: 9.0
Steals (L5) +17.2% more
Eastern Kentucky: 6.7 vs Bellarmine: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +10.3% more
Eastern Kentucky: 2.4 vs Bellarmine: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BELL Score 92.0 69
EKU Score 50.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 32.0 50.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.3 / 13.3 22.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.1 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 47.3 53.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 62.9 / 69.2 76.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 30.1 37.0 / 24.0
Steals 6.7 / 5.7 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 9.0 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BELL Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
EKU
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
EKU
10-19-1 (34.5%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EKU
BELL
EKU
BELL
ML
44% 14-18
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
94% 29-2
ATS
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
94% 29-2
TTL
53% 17-15
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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